APPLICANT'S ABSTRACT: School-aged racial/ethnic minority youth are a substantial and increasing proportion of the U.S. population, yet our understanding of the trends and predictors of alcohol and other substance use are based on predominantly white samples. Most surveys have not included large sub-samples of racial/ethnic youth; consequently, prevention efforts aimed at minority young people are often based on the assumption that the patterns of use among various racial/ethnic groups are the same as those for the population as a whole. Cost-effectiveness, secondary data-analysis is proposed to carry out an in-depth study of the trends in the patterns of alcohol and related substance misuse among ethnic minority school students in grades 5-12 over the past decade. The proposed research includes data from three comparable cross-sectional surveys of alcohol use, cigarette smoking, and illicit drug use among large, representative samples of 7-12th grade students in New York State in 1983, 1990 and 1994 (Ns=27,335, 23,860, and 19,321). Given the ethnic diversity in New York State and the large Ns, all racial/ethnic minority groups are well represented in these samples. For example, the 1994 adolescent survey includes approximately 1,200 American Indians, 1,000 West Indians, 1,800 African Americans, and 3,000 Hispanics. The proposed research will also include analysis of two comparable representative samples of 5-6 grade students surveyed in 1990 and 1994, including approximately 10,000 students in each sample. Comparisons will be made with national findings. In addition to the analysis of trends, further aims of the study are to determine: trends in protective factors among racial/ethnic minority groups of young people; trends in the relationships between alcohol misuse and other adolescent problem behaviors; the geographic variations in these trends; and trends in exposure to school prevention programs and potential help-seeking behaviors of minority adolescents. The proposed methods include the use of multivariate statistical techniques, including logistic regression and log-linear models. The findings will be directly relevant to the development of more effective prevention and intervention programs for minority youth.